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Charts from Amsci Article on Peak Oil

As I mentioned in the previous post, the peak oil article is available only to subscribers… but I have permission to share the charts and figures from the paper. So here are more trends and numbers to digest! Stephanie Freese and Barbara Aulicino at Amsci prepared the graphics.

Figure 5. The values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close. The model used general terms for resources and pollution, but current, approximate values for several specific examples are given for comparison. Data for this long a time period are difficult to obtain; many pollutants such as sewage probably have increased more than the numbers suggest. On the other hand, pollutants such as sulfur have largely been controlled in many countries.

Figure 5. The values predicted by the limits-to-growth model and actual data for 2008 are very close. The model used general terms for resources and pollution, but current, approximate values for several specific examples are given for comparison. Data for this long a time period are difficult to obtain; many pollutants such as sewage probably have increased more than the numbers suggest. On the other hand, pollutants such as sulfur have largely been controlled in many countries.


Figure 8. The annual rates of total drilling for oil and gas in the United States from 1949 to 2005 are shown versus the rates of production for the same period. If all other factors are kept equal, EROI is lower when drilling rates are high, because oil exploration and drilling are energy-intensive activities. The EROI may now be approaching 1:1 for finding new oil fields.

Figure 8. The annual rates of total drilling for oil and gas in the United States from 1949 to 2005 are shown versus the rates of production for the same period. If all other factors are kept equal, EROI is lower when drilling rates are high, because oil exploration and drilling are energy-intensive activities. The EROI may now be approaching 1:1 for finding new oil fields.


Figure 9. The rate at which oil is discovered globally has been dropping for decades (blue), and is projected to drop off even more precipitously in future years (green). The rate of worldwide consumption, however, is still continuing to rise (red line). Thus, the gap between supply and demand of oil can be expected to widen.

Figure 9. The rate at which oil is discovered globally has been dropping for decades (blue), and is projected to drop off even more precipitously in future years (green). The rate of worldwide consumption, however, is still continuing to rise (red line). Thus, the gap between supply and demand of oil can be expected to widen.


Figure 10. The energy return on investment (EROI) is the energy cost of acquiring an energy resource; one of the objectives is to get out far more that you put in. Domestic oil production’s EROI has decreased from about 100:1 in 1930, to 40:1 in 1970, to about 14:1 today. The EROI of most “green” energy sources, such as photovoltaics, is presently low. (Lighter colors indicate a range of possible EROI due to varying conditions and uncertain data.) EROI does not necessarily correspond to the total amount of energy in exajoules produced by each resource.

Figure 10. The energy return on investment (EROI) is the energy cost of acquiring an energy resource; one of the objectives is to get out far more that you put in. Domestic oil production’s EROI has decreased from about 100:1 in 1930, to 40:1 in 1970, to about 14:1 today. The EROI of most “green” energy sources, such as photovoltaics, is presently low. (Lighter colors indicate a range of possible EROI due to varying conditions and uncertain data.) EROI does not necessarily correspond to the total amount of energy in exajoules produced by each resource.


2 Responses to “Charts from Amsci Article on Peak Oil”

  1. lorin vant-hull says:
    May 26, 2009 at 11:40 am

    Its a shame neither solar thermal nor concentrating solar thermal power (CSTP)are included in the last chart. Domestic solar thermal is MUCH better than photovoltaics due to higher efficiency of collecting joules of product and lower capital energy requrements. CSTP has an energy payback of about 20. Its main problem is that the size of practical units makes them very expensive, and thus difficult to finance vs. PV, where a few watts or killowats can form an installation at very high cost/kWhr, but manageable capital cost.

  2. Managing the Peak Fossil Fuel Transition: EROI and EIRR | GREENDUMP says:
    December 22, 2009 at 9:36 am

    [...] Energy Invested (EROEI) has been widely used to quantify this concept.  The following chart, from a SciAm paper, shows the EROI of various sources of energy, with the tan section of the bar representing the [...]